Is the UK Sales Market ‘Bottoming’?

salesigns21Hamptons International, one of the UK’s most prominent residential agents has announced that the UK’s house market is close to hitting the ‘bottom’ of the market, following healthy levels of trading during the last three months and the presence of several distinct factors witnessed when Britain came out of the last recession in the early 1990’s.

Hamptons said the UK sales market during 2009 started as well as could be expected, with the number of potential buyers finding their way into estate agents’ offices up from 2008. New applicant registration figures from April reveal a 13% rise, when comparing the same period in 2008. This rise has been converting into increased viewings and sales, with sales agreed up 27% in April 09 (compared to April 08). In fact, there have been three consistently good months of UK sales activity and although this is not at the boom-time level of 2007, it is certainly better than for some time.

Hamptons’ figures also highlight that a significant change in supply and demand has taken place within the UK sales market. The number of new instructions is down 40%, when compared to the previous year (Apr 08 v 09), whereas the number of applicants is up 13%. As a result the balance of power is moving back to vendors and new stock is required to meet current demand.

Vendors are three times more likely to secure a sale now than this time last year. The latest figures from Hamptons reveal that two out of three properties are now being sold, as opposed to one in five at the same time last year (April 08 V 09).

In addition, prices are beginning to stabilize across both the London and Country markets. Having fallen by approximately 25-30% since the peak of the market in July 2007, we are now witnessing more competitive bidding and occasional gazumping.

We are also witnessing the same symptoms as we did when we came out of the last recession in the early 1990’s. Firstly, with the London market and activity picking up initially and then rolling out to the Country and secondly, the middle market reviving and the top end remaining problematic. When house prices started to fall in 2007, it was the mainstream market that was hit first and the top end (£3m +) continued to perform well until March 2008. The top end is now behind the curve and continuing to suffer, which has happened in every previous recession – and it is the mid-market that is beginning to recover.

“The start of 2009 has definitely gone as well as expected and we are beginning to witness healthy levels of trading. As a result, we remain cautiously optimistic about the market barring any unforeseen economic crises. Given activity levels over the last few months, we see the market entering a period of stabilization for the remainder of 2009, and although we do not expect any house price rises in 2009 – we do not predict any further falls”, comments Marc Goldberg, head of residential sales, Hamptons International.

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