There are tentative signs that the fall in activity in the Irish property market could be coming to an end.

The IIB Homeloans / IMAF Mortgage Market Survey has found that many brokers are confident that a modest improvement will occur in coming months.

Mr. Paul Short, President, IMAF said: “The survey suggests that conditions vary widely across the market at present” noted Mr. Short. “The experience of individual brokers varies widely. This may hint at a market that is in the process of bottoming out. It probably also reflects intense competition in the marketplace at present.

Mr. John McAlinden, Head of Marketing at IIB Homeloans also commented on signs of a levelling off in activity. ‘While it might be premature to suggest that a pick-up in activity is at hand, brokers are not reporting anything like the sort of deterioration seen in 2007,’ he said, ’there is also a widespread expectation that conditions should improve in the months ahead.’

Mr. McAlinden noted that ‘nervousness about the general outlook for the Irish economy is holding many would-be borrowers back at present. Fears about job security make a big difference when people are contemplating what is usually the most important financial transaction in their lives.’

The survey sheds some light on brokers’ assessment of the impact of a range of factors on the Irish mortgage market according to Austin Hughes, Chief Economist, IIB Bank who carried out the research. ‘The survey suggests that even the idea of lower interest rates could make a significant difference to the Irish mortgage market’ said Mr. Hughes. ‘In contrast, the impact of budget changes and further price falls appears limited. ‘One surprising aspect of the survey is that only 2% of brokers think budget changes introduced by Mr. Cowen in December will have a substantial impact, while only 5% think further generalised falls in house prices would boost activity’ he added. So, brokers feel the problem is one of weak demand rather than excessive supply.’

Key findings:
- Although conditions vary widely across the Irish mortgage market, signs are emerging of a bottoming out in activity.
- Brokers are confident that a modest improvement will occur in coming months.
- Lower interest rates would provide the greatest boost to the market but pessimism about the economy is also seen as a central factor.
- Even modest cuts in borrowing costs could make a big difference to the Irish mortgage market.
- Budget changes introduced by Mr. Cowen are seen having only a slight impact on the mortgage market in 2008.