House prices will rise by just over one percent this year, but the risk of a crash has eased, according to a Reuters poll of 24 economists.

Reuters conducted the poll from August 15-17 which shows that there is an 11% chance of a house market crash in the next year.

A crash was defined by the economists as a drop in prices of between 10 and 20% within a year.

Reuters said that the poll’s results are in line with recent surveys by Nationwide, Halifax and government figures issued by the Land Registry which have all shown house price inflation at multi-year lows.

Nineteen economists said British house prices were overvalued while two said they were not, but affordability should improve if prices stabilise and earnings continue to rise.

The median of 11 forecasts showed the average British house price, based on the main house prices indices, at 162,000 pounds by the end of 2005.

“House price inflation will remain weak through 2005 as the monthly rate stays essentially flat and last year’s strong rises fall out of the index,” said Trevor Williams at LloydsTSB Financial Markets in London.

Affordability is returning to the market after the excess of 2003 and 2004. But there still remains a need for house price inflation to remain roughly stagnant for a few more years, restoring value as earnings grow faster than house prices.”