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House prices cooled during June

It may have been a hot month for many, but the housing market showed continued signs of cooling down, with a drop of 0.2pc.
The annual price growth also fell to 4.1%, the lowest level since July 1996.

The cost of an average home in the UK during June stood at £157,791.

Nationwide has described the market as stagnant, with sellers continuing to seek high prices and buyers continuing to seek more discounts.

With no economic pressure on buyers, this stand off could continue. However, an interest rate cut in the autumn may help the market.

Commenting on the figures Fionnuala Earley, Nationwide’s Group Economist, said: “Temperatures soared on centre court, but there is little in the housing market this month to attract attention away from tennis. While the weather was hotting up, house prices in June cooled, falling by 0.2% when adjusted for seasonal factors. The trend over the last three months shows the almost horizontal path of price growth this year. Prices in the three months to June were 0.8% higher than the previous three month period.

Annual house price growth has now slowed to just 4.1% - compared with 19% this time last year. This is the slowest rate of growth since July 1996. Activity levels too seem to have stagnated. After picking up in the early months of the year, the number of approvals for house purchase increased slightly in May to 96,000.

Nationwide expects activity to continue at about this level through the summer. Estate agents continue to report stalemates between buyers and sellers on price and without any economic pressure on sellers to reduce prices at the moment, the stock to sales ratio looks set to rise. This cannot continue indefinitely and price expectations will adjust. There are some early signs of easing but questions remain over timing. When will prices adjust and how far will they have to move?

Nationwide?s index shows that affordability is deteriorating, but if interest rates do move south in the Autumn, this will improve and may mean that only small price adjustments will be necessary to bring some liquidity back to the market. But current affordability is not the only factor to consider; uncertainty about the economic climate is also playing a big role.

Consumer sentiment seems to be the key. Until now, Nationwide?s Consumer Confidence Survey has suggested that consumers have been fairly confident about their current financial position ? not surprising with continuing employment growth - but that they are more concerned about the future. This could be in anticipation of tax increases, widely predicted around election time and could also be the major factor behind consumers? current reluctance to spend on the high street. The most recent surveys , however, show some weakening in current sentiment and this may explain their reluctance to stretch themselves now. Added to this is the volatility in expectations about the direction of interest rates. Just two months ago all the talk was about increases in rates; the situation has now reversed. In such an uncertain climate consumers might just be taking that “wait and see” approach.”


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